What a rejected strategy actually tells you
· 4 min read
A rejection is the tool working, not failing. How to read passed, rejected and undecided verdicts — and why undecided is the most honest of the three.
A rejection is the tool succeeding
Nobody enjoys being told their idea doesn't stand up. But a rejection delivered before you risk anything is the cheapest trade you will never make, and that is what you came for. Mithos treats a rejection as the platform working, not failing.
It also isn't a judgement on you. It is a statement about the evidence: on this data, with this many attempts behind it, the result did not clear the bar.
- PASS the evidence supports the strategy.
- REJECT the evidence doesn't support it.
- UNDECIDED there isn't enough evidence to say either way yet.
A pass reached only on stand-in data — an ETF proxying an index, say — is marked as passed on proxy data and can never be armed for live trading.
Undecided is the honest one
The third outcome is the one most tools don't have. When there isn't enough evidence to say either way, Mithos says exactly that instead of dressing uncertainty up as a recommendation. A short sample, a thin number of trades, a period that never contained the conditions your rules depend on — all of those produce a genuine "we cannot tell yet".
Undecided is an instruction, not a dead end: it tells you the next useful thing to do is gather more evidence, not to trade the idea or bin it.
What to do with a rejection
Resist the urge to immediately tweak one setting and run it again. That is exactly the search the harness is correcting for, and each extra attempt raises the bar the next result has to clear. The useful response is to change the idea, not the dial: a different reason for the trade to exist, rather than the same reason with a wider stop.
Where to read more
How it works walks through the sequence a strategy goes through, and the concept pages cover the individual failure modes behind each verdict.
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